Port Washington, NEW YORK, August 11, 2009 – The NPD Group, Inc., a leading market research company, sees that for back-to-school 2009 consumers will continue to slow their spending but that the decrease won't be as big as the one seen in 2008.
Overall, consumers tell NPD that they aren't in a hurry to shop. This year there was a 5 percent increase in the number of consumers saying they either 'haven't started' or 'don't plan to shop' for back-to-school as of July 2009.
"While this 5 percent increase is not a huge increase, it's enough of a shift to show us that there is no real rush by consumers to shop, even with the deep discounts being offered early in the season," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, The NPD Group, Inc.
| Have you purchased for back-to-school yet? | 2009 |
| Yes | 6% |
| Not yet begun | 17% |
| No, won't shop for back-to-school | 77% |
In addition to starting later, consumers say they plan to spend less for back-to-school this year. This year the number of consumers that tell NPD they 'plan to spend less' for back-to-school rose by 9 points.
"Last year we had an even bigger drop-off in spending intentions," said Cohen. "So the good news is that the bigger drop off is behind us. And the 'not so bad news' is that back-to-school is in line with the current trend of consumers cutting back but not out."
| Back To School Spending Intentions | 2009 | 2008 |
| Plan to Spend Less? | 44% | 35% |
| Plan to Spend the Same? | 32% | 34% |
| Plan to Spend More? | 23% | 31% |
Additionally, this year consumers say they are making a dramatic shift in their spending priorities. Most notably there is a shift away from footwear and apparel purchases (down 9 and 8 points respectively).
| Category Spending In Dollar Order | 2009 | 2008 |
| School Supplies | 77% | 78% |
| Apparel | 52% | 60% |
| Footwear | 39% | 48% |
| Electronics* | 30% | 34% |
| School Bags | 29% | 33% |
| Apparel Accessories | 16% | 20% |
| Beauty Products | 13% | 17% |
| Bedding | 12% | 13% |
| Calculators | 8% | 4% |
| Small Appliances | 6% | 7% |
Seventy-nine percent of consumers tell NPD that 'value' is the reason they buy something for back-to-school. Running a distant second is 'required by school,' at 45 percent.
| Why will you purchase? | 2009 | 2008 |
| Value | 79% | 80% |
| Required | 45% | 51% |
| Replacement | 28% | 30% |
| Child Wanted It | 18% | 21% |
| Trendy/Fashionable | 13% | 18% |
| Influenced By Friends | 2% | 4% |
As consumers shift their purchasing behavior, they will also be shifting where they will shop. Indications are that department stores will take the hardest hit with 20 percent of consumers saying they will shop there, a 4 percent decline from last year. Mass merchants/discounters are consumers' top shopping destination, with 82 percent of consumers saying they will shop there, followed by Office supply stores at 42 percent. Chain stores come in third, with 29 percent.
"Back-to-school will be a big indicator of the consumers' psyche with regard to overall spending this year compared to last year. So far, we are seeing continued caution when it comes to spending. Consumers are clearly putting need over desire. They will be more highly influenced by value than by fashionable or trendy products," concluded Cohen.
About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,700 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, contact us, visit http://www.npd.com/ or follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/npdgroup.