See into the Future of Toys

The toy industry is changing, and with changes come challenges.

“Consumers might feel as though they have fewer choices, and that those choices are driven by larger toy companies and retailers. The transformation ahead can also bring opportunity to an industry that thinks differently. Companies that adapt, react quickly, are innovative and creative, and look to the future will excel in this new world”
— Juli Lennett
U.S. Toys Industry Advisor, The NPD Group

As distribution channels change, consumers will react differently to the products available to them. The toy industry will need to stay ahead of these consumer shifts.

We can help.

Our U.S. Toys Category Forecast provides detail down to subclass level across multiple time periods through the end of 2019. It brings our forecasts to life visually in a dynamic and easy-to-use environment. It is designed to enable exploration, drill-downs, and comparisons. Data can be extracted to make it easy for you to extend use cases. The deliverable includes 117+ supercategories and subclasses with measures including units, dollars, and ASP. Additionally, the forecast accounts for the liquidation of Toys"R"Us and its impact in the marketplace.

The accompanying Future of Toys report shows you what’s ahead. By combining point-of-sale data, key consumer insights, and targeted analyst commentary on how product categories are likely to perform through the end of 2019, it delivers the information, context, and confidence you need to make the right decisions.


The Future of Toys report includes a deeper dive on these subcategories:

  • Action figures
  • Action figures collectibles
  • Early electronic learning
  • Toddler figures/playsets and accessories
  • Children’s games
  • Family board/action games
  • Strategic trading card games
  • Preschool figures/playsets and accessories
  • Preschool vehicles
  • Fashion dolls
  • Fashion role play and dress up
  • Playset dolls and collectibles
  • Blasters/shooters and accessories
  • Standard building sets
  • Playset doll accessories
  • Large dolls and accessories
  • Special feature/interactive plush
  • Traditional plush toys
  • Reusable compounds
  • Craft kits
  • Radio remote control air
  • Mini vehicles

This report, and especially its forecasts, may spark important questions for your business: Where should we invest? Which categories should we think about exiting? How can we optimize our offerings to engage a wider base of consumers? It’s your new resource for refining your strategies and planning for the future.

The Future of Toys equips you to...

  • Examine market shifts within the consumer toy industry
  • Identify revenue growth opportunities for traditional and emerging categories
  • Understand consumer purchase behaviors and intent
  • Explore top purchase channels at the subcategory level


Here's a look at some of the report category forecast highlights...



Purchases of action figure collectibles are expected to rise over the next 12 months. This will contribute to a forecasted rise in revenue through 2018, before the category flattens out in 2019.


One-quarter of playset dolls and collectibles purchases in the next 12 months are expected to be made online, likely from an online-only retailer.



Unit sales of standard building sets are expected to dip in 2018 and then climb slightly in 2019.


Interest in mini-vehicles continues to rise. We expect this to lead to a slight rise in projected unit sales and revenue in 2018, followed by a decline in 2019.

Source: The NPD Group/The Future of Toys Report 2018



Want more insights like this? Contact your NPD account representative,
call us at 866-444-1411, or email contactnpd@npd.com.