U.S. athletic footwear sales have been a puzzle this spring. While I accurately predicted the weakness due to the late income tax refunds and late Easter, the expected bounce-back simply did not happen. The sales trend was below expectations in March, April, and now May.
Looking for explanations, I went back to investigate a trend that I began to see late last year, and made a startling discovery. Sales of sneakers to Hispanics in the U.S. have slowed dramatically from the previous trend. Data from The NPD Group’s Consumer Tracking Service shows that sales of athletic and outdoor footwear to Hispanics grew in 2016 in the mid-teens, and accounted for nearly all the growth we saw last year. Hispanics represented about 23 percent of sneaker sales in 2016. Since the beginning of 2017, however, sales of sneakers to Hispanics slowed to a high-teens decline. No other cohort saw this kind of slowdown.
This slowdown accounts for a change in trend that can be measured in the hundreds of basis points. The change in shopping behavior has been significant in the disappointing results so far this year.
The channel hardest hit by this change in behavior has been shoe chains, followed by sporting goods and national chains; however, no channel was immune to the slowdown.
Looking at the results by category, work/occupational footwear sales to Hispanics improved and outdoor footwear sales stayed about the same. Performance footwear took the hardest hit, especially in the already weak basketball, skate, and running categories. Sport leisure was also markedly weaker this spring than last year.
From a brand point of view, the slowdown in purchases by Hispanics greatly impacted Vans, Nike, Skechers, and Brand Jordan. Adidas and Puma (two hot brands right now) actually strengthened.
Why has this change in behavior occurred? A recent comment from Robert Kaplan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, to USA Today, may offer a clue. He said that millions of immigrants have become “more likely to save than to spend,” and this will “have some muting effect on consumer spending and therefore GDP growth.”
Whatever the reason, this change is important. My expectations for the back-to-school season and beyond are now much lower due to this Hispanic slowdown.
SFIA Virtual Conference
Presenter: Matt Powell, Senior Industry Advisor – U.S. Sports
Presentation Title: Best Practices for Brands & Retail in the Current Environment
Date and Time: Thursday, September 24 at 1:45 - 2:30 PM (EST)
Description: Matt Powell hosts an interactive discussion on marketplace trends and what brands and retailers can do to win post-pandemic. Matt, a well-known and often quoted expert in the sports industry, will be presenting the trends and forces shaping our industry, its response to COVID-19, and its future. Matt will assess the industry across various categories, discuss the forces impacting manufacturers, retailers and consumers, and provide his predictions for the coming year. Drawing upon NPD's sales tracking data, his 40+ years in the industry, and insights from what has been successful in other industries NPD tracks, Matt will focus on best practices and what manufacturers and retailers can do to thrive in today’s rapidly changing marketplace.