Apparel Market Research & Business Solutions

The Future of Apparel report goes into consumers' mindsets and motivations to show you what’s ahead. It features deep consumer insight, plus analyst commentary on growth opportunities in the apparel categories and retail channels that matter to your business. It’s how to make long-range, data-driven decisions and win in the future.

Trend Tracker is a new and intuitive site that tracks and helps you understand fashion trends. You get an up-to-the-moment pulse on the fashion industry, and we can tell you what it means for you and your business.

The U.S. apparel industry captured the most dollars during the 2016 back-to-school (BTS) season, edging in front of school supplies. As consumers prioritize their purchases, will apparel remain the lead dog for share of spend for BTS 2017? Here’s what we will keep a close eye on in the coming months.

Millennials, athleisure, and ecommerce continue to be the brightest spots in the U.S. apparel industry, though they lost some of their intensity in 2017, reports The NPD Group, a leading global information company. This slowed momentum among the industry’s key sales drivers, combined with declines in other segments, resulted in $215 billion in U.S. apparel sales in 2017, a 2 percent decline in from 2016.

According to The NPD Group’s Checkout, a receipt mining service, close to one-third (29 percent) of total online apparel buyers purchased outerwear online in the 12 months ending November 2017.

Apparel subscription services, like Stitch Fix and Trunk Club, and introduction of Amazon’s Prime Wardrobe, are examples of the hottest new shopping channel in the swiftly evolving $217.6 billion U.S. apparel market*, reports The NPD Group, a leading global information company. The apparel market’s evolution is evidenced by the fact that both Amazon and the apparel subscription service, Stitch Fix, were among the top 10 retailers last year in terms of online apparel wallet share, according to NPD’s online receipt mining service, Checkout TrackingSM E-commerce.

Global information company The NPD Group has launched Trend Tracker, a new microsite designed to help clients track and understand apparel trends. The NPD Group’s Trend Tracker provides access to data dashboards, insight reports, curated news, and industry analyst expertise, highlighting the sales performance of major fashion trends in the apparel industry.

The $13.5 billion U.S. women’s and men’s jeans market has rebounded from recent challenging times, growing sales 4 percent in 2016*, according to leading global information company The NPD Group. The latest styles and older standards (or models) both play an important role, and the respective roles of the two groups showcase how differently women and men shop for jeans.

The three key components of the $334 billion retail fashion segment, apparel, footwear, and fashion accessories, are each in different positions when it comes to the business, according to leading global information company The NPD Group. The apparel industry, which represents 65 percent of total U.S. retail fashion dollar sales and spans everything from basics to jeans, continues to enjoy the consistent growth experienced over the past few years. Conversely, the more trend-driven footwear and fashion accessories industries are now experiencing sales declines, keeping overall retail fashion sales in the 12 months ending February 2017 even with results from the prior year.

Victoria’s Secret is attracting a loyal consumer who shops frequently, and spends more than the average intimates consumer, according to The NPD Group, a leading global information company. Over a quarter of in-store and online intimate apparel buyers purchase bras or panties from Victoria’s Secret, according to the new Victoria’s Secret Playbook report, based on analysis from NPD’s receipt mining service, Checkout Tracking℠. The new report examines the purchase behaviors of this major player in the intimate apparel market, uncovering the factors that contribute to their dominance.

Consumers who purchase at off-price retail outlets are a growing group, reports The NPD Group, a leading global information company. Now representing two-thirds of all consumers, off-price buyers are also hardcore apparel purchasers and represent 75 percent of apparel purchases across all retail channels, according to NPD’s receipt mining service, Checkout Trackingsm. Not a particularly loyal group, off-price apparel buyers shop at multiple off-price retailers as well as other retail outlets.

Sports bras are the go-to bra for Millennials. With sizing ease and long-term comfort top-of-mind, Millennials start their bra wardrobe with sports bras and these seamless, activewear bras remain a wardrobe staple. While 41 percent of Millennials said they wore a sports bra in the past seven days, that number was much lower, just 21 percent, among non-Millennial women, according to the 2015 Bra Journey Insights report from global information company The NPD Group.

Teenage females in the U.S. are changing when it comes to the types of clothing sizes they are purchasing, according to the 2015 Women’s Special Sizes Study from global information company The NPD Group. While there has been a sizeable decline among U.S. teens purchasing in the junior size category – from 81 percent in 2012, to 73 percent in 2015 – the percentage of those purchasing plus-size clothing has grown almost two-fold – now 34 percent, compared to 19 percent in 2012.

When a new year arrives, I start to think of the things I’d like to do differently from the last. Oddly enough, each year, the same three things keep reappearing on my list; read more, cook more and travel more.  I should also stress that the words “for fun” should be added to the ends of each of these statements as there was still reading, cooking and traveling that took place but it was rarely for entertainment purposes.

The new year also has me thinking about what’s in store for apparel in 2018.  Similar to my personal list, adding “for fun” also seems relevant.  With consumers being selective on where they are allocating their spending and their desire to invest in making memories, 2018 is the time for apparel to jump on the experience or should I say “fun” bandwagon.

Here are three areas where the concept of “fun” will impact apparel for 2018.

Increasing Foot Traffic:
As online continues to steal dollars from in-store, 2018 will be the year for these platforms to align in regards to promotions and excitement.  Consumers look online for better deals but with retailers looking to increase in-store foot traffic, along with impulse purchasing, these incentives need to better align to reach the omnipresent consumer.  Building an entertaining experience by ways of in-store events, sales support and overall social gatherings will continue to give consumers the incentive to break away from their screens and join in on the fun.

Increasing Product Innovation:
Three out of five apparel shoppers are indifferent about the current apparel offerings.  With only eleven percent* feeling excited about today’s apparel there is a need for some disruption within this industry.  Increasing color assortment will no longer cut it. Being unique and personal are a must for today’s “get to know the real me” consumer mindset.  Technology coupled with a better understanding of what the consumer is looking for across various features (from slimming to stretch) will peak interest and entice shoppers to spend.

Increasing Personal Style:
Time will continue to be a precious commodity for many in 2018.  This means more money will continue to be allocated towards experiences and making new memories.  This also means certain categories will feel that trade-off in spend.  Consumers will always need clothes but 2018 will see more companies offering to help shoppers with pairing outfit components across a variety of price-points.  This will not only help shoppers develop their personal style but also saves time and helps add some of the excitement back into the purchase process.   

With a new year there tends to be a new you.  Apparel can play on this concept as consumers are looking to get rid of the old in many aspects, including their wardrobe.  It is a time to start fresh and by just adding a little more fun this industry can go a long way.

Cheers to a fashionable, and fun, 2018!

* Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Omnibus Sep2017

A good portion of my family members celebrate their birthdays in the fall. This year, birthday presents included things like a cooking class, a skydiving simulation and a room escape challenge for the family.  This also means I have to think extra-hard about what they could possibly want this upcoming holiday that will top that. After all, being able to buy a gift that someone truly enjoys requires some actual work. You really need to know the person.

That is why I was a bit surprised when my cousin gave my sister a gift card for her birthday.  Aren’t gift cards something you buy when you don’t know the person?  Not only was my sister given a gift card, it was for a place she never heard about...at least not until last week. You see, my cousin was planning on hosting a “cabi party.” 

For those who may not be as familiar with cabi, think of it as a clothing party one can host at their house where a stylist/advisor showcases pieces for the latest season. At first I thought of it as a good excuse to attend a “girl’s night out.” Some wine and cheese and I’d be set. But to my surprise I really loved the process. It was a fun “experience” if you will, where I basically shopped with my friends and family. Given our busy lifestyles, I rarely have time to go shopping let alone with my sister, mother, cousins and friends all at one time.

NPD’s partner, Civic Science, recently reported that women were less likely to choose a “clothing shopping spree” as a preferred splurge.  Instead they were opting for other forms of entertainment and experiences, hence the previously mentioned birthday gifts. But in the scenario of the “cabi party”, we got the experience AND the clothes. And boy did we splurge. Remember my sister who went in with a gift card to a place she didn’t even know existed; well she purchased beyond the gift amount, didn’t shop with any discounts and is already looking to host a party herself. So I guess my perception of gift card giving was proven wrong – there can be much more behind these gifts than appears on the surface, for gift-giver, recipient, and the brand.

With half* of consumers saying they rarely or never plan to spend full price on clothing in 2017, apparel is faced with a challenging environment. Matt Powell’s Sneakernomics blog called the future PUNY (Premium, Unique, New and Young). According to Matt, the shift to PUNY presents challenges for the mega-brands. The consumer is in more control today than ever before and how brands respond to this change will have great bearing on their future.

Unique shopping experiences like Stitch Fix, with their recent IPO announcement, Rent The Runway, or in this case cabi are keeping consumers interested in apparel while stealing dollars from the more traditional platforms.  This is a wake-up call for brands to better understand their consumer before they decide to take their money elsewhere, especially for the upcoming holiday season.   

This back-to-school shopping season is a clear reflection of changing times. Besides the season starting earlier and ending later, back-to-school shopping now includes more options for the consumer than ever before, and the effects of these overarching shifts are impacting retail fashion at a deeper level. Kids no longer flock to a single must-have item or a must-shop store. Rather, students are shopping eclectically and this is putting a new kind of pressure on retailers.

Apparel accounts for the largest share of back-to-school spending for students in Kindergarten through 12^th grade, and almost 60 percent of consumers told NPD that they planned to spend more on apparel purchases for back-to-school during the 2017 shopping season*. Yet, overall apparel dollar sales are down two percent in the nine weeks ending August 12 compared to the same period in 2016**. The reality is the majority of the back-to-school wardrobe comes together after school starts. By September 2016, more than a quarter of consumers had not yet completed their back-to-school apparel shopping*. In spite of the promotions happening at retail – the days of students shopping for the bulk of their school clothes in the summer are quickly fading. But even after school has started, the fashion industry has another set of challenges to face.

Today’s younger generations view fashion through a different lens than those who preceded them. Generation Z’s emphasis on social media has also changed the way fashion is communicated, inspired, and consumed among teens. As a result, fashion has gotten much more eclectic – a wide range of styles has now taken the place of the must-have look. There are also lots of choices for where to shop, from the high-end to the low-end, and everything in-between – never mind all the online and in-store options.

Consumer shopping delays and diversity are the drivers behind the recent two percent decline in apparel sales and the challenges that retail fashion will continue to face beyond this back-to-school shopping season. The lack of passion for fashion among today’s youth, the lack of on overarching fashion influence, and lack of a singular fashion direction has created a gap between the retailer and the consumer, which is resulting in a gap in sales.

While apparel will be a top back-to-school spend, albeit delayed, back-to-school shoppers are thinking about their back-to-school fashion spend differently. Manufacturers and retailers need to close the gap and relate to the students shopping for apparel consumer and ask, “What’s your look?”

We recently welcomed Alexa into my family through Amazon’s latest virtual assistant option, the Echo Show.  She claimed prime real-estate on the kitchen counter thanks to her new seven inch touchscreen and was a big hit during a recent gathering with friends. The conversation quickly turned to the multitude of ways each of my friends currently utilize Amazon’s services to fit their own personal needs.

One friend will be sure to take advantage of the recent Whole Foods acquisition, as she’s on the hunt for more grass-fed cow’s milk options. Another, an avid Kindle reader, devours books in Prime Reading. While a third friend stated her kid would never be able to go to birthday party if it wasn’t for Amazon Prime delivering gifts the next day given her forgetful nature. As we spent hours asking Alexa to play music ranging from pop to nursery rhymes, and even 80’s hairbands, I couldn’t help but wonder how I’ll be able to use my new device once Prime Wardrobe officially launches. 

There is still a lot to learn about Amazon’s new “try before you buy” service. Currently, you pick the individual items you want. But could devices like the Echo Show or Echo Look evolve into something similar to Stitch Fix, offering outfit curation based on subscribers’ style?

While Amazon is the top online apparel retailer among consumers of all ages, according to NPD’s Checkout Tracking E-Commerce information, Stitch Fix is not far behind on the list, especially for 35-44 year olds where it ranks sixth in terms of share of their online apparel wallet. Like the Amazon consumer, the Stitch Fix consumer is shopping online. They spent almost half of their online apparel wallet at retailers with no physical location. And consumers who shop at Stitch Fix also spend five times more at Stitch Fix than they did on apparel purchases from Amazon.* 

Subscription shopping services are changing the way we think about shopping. With the technology of Echo devices and Amazon’s broad product reach, there is potential for Amazon to take the subscription model to a whole new level. As someone who regularly shops both Amazon and StitchFix, I’ll be keeping a close eye as to what emerges as a result of Prime Wardrobe, especially given the move towards more personalization in today’s apparel environment. Until then, I am truly enjoying Alexa as the newest member of my family.

Eight glasses of water…check. Ten thousand steps…check. Whole grains…check. From clean eating to athleisure makeup, the idea of living a healthy lifestyle is here to stay and making its presence known across industries. But, for some, healthy living is less about actually being healthy and more about looking the part.

Beyond the comfort component that has been a major focus behind the athleisure trend, consumers are also looking for clothing to be functional, and of course, fashionable. Clothing that can be worn to work and the soccer field makes life much easier for working moms.

Enter “spashion”…companies are now blurring the lines between sport functionality and fashionable looks.

Athleisure has been a main trend in the industry for the past few years, showing double-digit growth since 2012. We are wearing activewear even when we are not actually exercising. It’s part of our wardrobe and part of the casualization of Americans that my colleague, Marshal Cohen, has been examining since its onset. This year, the craze for athletic bottoms has started to settle – dollar sales gained a moderate five percent compared to the 14 percent growth last year.

On the flipside, interest in denim has been on the rise, with dollar sales growing for the last two years, largely due to newness and innovation within the women’s category.* Jeans with yoga pant lining or extreme stretch are the types of products that consumers are starting to expect from clothing brands today. Gone are the days of uncomfortable denim. Today’s jeans are softer, stretchier, and more versatile than they were a few short years ago. These innovations are spanning various brands and price-points, making this trend more attainable.

Bralettes are another example of the fashion and sport worlds coming together. These products have made sport and non-sport bras somewhat interchangeable for the consumer. As a result, sport bralettes’ share of the market increased 12 points in just one year’s time.**

The list of categories that blur sports and fashion is long. From bigger ticket items like outerwear to your everyday basics like socks, elements from both sides are making their way into end products. Knowing which elements are most important to your unique consumer is essential in aligning your product’s offerings to their lifestyle.

After all, a consumer who wants to be fashionable while running errands around town may very well be looking for some of the same functional features as a consumer planning to run a marathon –  when that happens, it is time to enter the world of “spashion”.

Ivy Park, Victoria’s Secret, Old Navy, and Calvin Klein are not your “traditional” athletic apparel brands, but they are making their presence known within the activewear category. The definition of athletic continues to evolve. More fashion-centric brands are embracing this lifestyle change, especially within women’s apparel, making it more inclusive of all brands. And boy, oh boy, there are a lot of brands.

The number of activewear brands still continues to grow. There are nearly thirty percent* more brands reported by consumers than there were just two years ago…that’s nearly five hundred* more brands! With everyone jumping on the active bandwagon, when will activewear sales slowdown?  Well, that depends on the brand.

Lululemon revolutionized the premium athletic legging market but saw stock prices dive over 20 percent – their March 29 ^th investor call reported a slow start to 2017 resulting from a lack of depth and color in their spring assortment. And though some other factors, like weather, a late spring and delayed tax refund checks have plagued 2017’s performance across many brands, I can’t help but wonder, was this just a blip or a sign of more troubles to come for the brand?

The brand’s once unique yoga-inspired niche is now faced with competition across various price-points. While some consumers will remain loyal to the brand, there will be others that find solace in lower-priced options that are “good enough,” especially in today’s overly promotional retail environment. Consumers are trained to seek out a deal – half** of apparel consumers said they plan to rarely, or never, pay full price for their clothing in 2017.

Though dollar sales growth of women’s active apparel bottoms has slowed to five percent*** from the double-digit gains experienced just one year ago, women are still buying more. There were 118 million*** more women’s active bottoms sold in the 12 months ending February 2017 than what was sold just five years ago, clearly showing that this apparel item is a part of her everyday lifestyle, and it is not about to go away.

Along with the active world, the fashion world is addressing the consumer’s need for comfort. Whether it is the blurring of denim and active, pajamas going from sleep to street, or overall versatility, the options are endless. This bodes well for the consumer, who can be picky and select the right choice for her needs and her wallet. But, it puts added pressure on brands to differentiate from the growing field of competition, while connecting to their consumer to get their fair share. In this sea of brands it will be a survival of the fittest, pun intended. 

Though store closings are not considered new news, there was a plethora of retailers officially announcing their closures earlier this year, including a number of industry leaders. And while businesses need to adjust to having less retail space, it will take a toll on overall apparel sales during this course correction.     

The closing of The Sports Authority stores was called the largest failure ever seen in the sports industry by my colleague, Matt Powell. The Sports Authority represented more than 10 percent of the sports industry’s apparel and equipment sales. What was not anticipated after doors closed was that some of its business would simply evaporate. Some business went to adjacent big box retailers, some went to ecommerce, but there was about 20 to 25 percent that just disappeared.

So what will consumers do when some of their favorite apparel stores begin to close locations? In a recent survey, 58 percent* of respondents told NPD they would seek out the particular store, either at another physical location or on that retailer’s website. A third* said they will turn to another retailer. The remaining 9 percent of responses indicate an uncertain fate (six percent* said they will not shop for apparel, and the rest didn’t select any of the options), even before their store actually closed and could produce another sales evaporation story.

One channel that stands to gain during these changing times is off-price. Nearly six out of every 10 (56 percent)** consumers who purchase apparel, buy clothing at off-price stores. Those who shop off-price for clothing spent five percent more per purchase, bought thirty-three more apparel items per year, and visited twelve more apparel retailers per year. This consumer is passionate about their apparel purchase and will cross-shop – eighty-five percent** of off-price buyers also purchase apparel from department and specialty stores. But with fewer apparel store options on the horizon this consumer may start to dedicate more of their wallet to the off-price channel.

While retailers hope a consumer will remain loyal, the landscape is changing. Doors are closing and apparel brands are losing shelf space. Deep discounting has become a reality in today’s apparel industry. Retailers are looking beyond omni-channel and becoming more personal. Stores that not only recognize but also adapt quickly to each of these changes will be the ones to head in the right direction and ultimately prevail.

*Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / February 2017 Omnibus
**Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Checkout Tracking^TM,  December 2016**

Change is in the air. News about companies outside of apparel bringing their manufacturing back to the U.S. is increasing. One of the largest clothing manufacturers in the U.S., American Apparel, was just purchased by Gildan, a Canada-based company; and we are preparing for the inauguration of a new U.S. president. This is both an exciting and uncertain time for domestic manufacturing. The next four years could play a major role in the ‘Made in the USA’ sentiment.

American pride is evident in today’s consumerism. Americans are expressing their national pride, and looking for ‘Made in the USA’ labels on the products they buy. Nearly eighty percent of shoppers said it is important to them to some degree, with almost half (44 percent) stating it is extremely or very important that the products they buy be made in the USA – even higher for those forty-five years or older. But when asked if they would pay more for a product that was made in the USA, less than a quarter (23 percent) said they are willing to spend the extra money all or most of the time. Half of shoppers said they would sometimes be willing to pay more for products made in the USA, which is likely dependent on what they are buying.

Hands down, and to no surprise, food was the item that most consumers said they would be more likely buy if it was made in the USA. Second to food was apparel. Apparel edged in front of categories like home appliances, footwear, and even cars. Apparel’s number two position was driven by women – Females were 30 percent more likely than men to opt for apparel that is made in the USA. But with heavy discounting dictating the way we shop, as seen throughout the recent holiday season, is it realistic to expect the consumer to pay more for American-made apparel?

My colleague, Marshal Cohen, said in a recent blog, “2017 will be the year that country of origin will take a significant step forward in terms of both consumer responsiveness and becoming part of the marketing DNA of the product.” What it all means for the apparel industry remains to be seen. Will consumers actually spend more on locally produced product?  Only time will tell. What we do know is consumers are paying attention to where products are made, and so should manufacturers and retailers.

This year will be one full of change for fashion at retail – some is overdue, some is driven, but all of it is necessary. The days of the consumer following trends have faded. Consumers are now creating their own looks, seeking apparel, footwear, and accessories that fit into their lifestyle, not the other way around.

Active will enter its second generation in 2017. Active apparel companies will transform their product to be less focused on performance and more focused on lifestyle. At the same time, lifestyle brands will try to become more active-oriented.  

Footwear fusion will be the key. The hybrid approach to activewear will carry over to footwear in 2017 as well. The focus for feet will be less about dress and more about innovation and comfort.

Casualization will give pajamas new function. The next generation of casualization will mainstream the use of pajamas as weekend wear. This is not a new concept – college students have been doing this for years – but now it will be embraced by those who didn’t just have an all-nighter cramming for a final.

The little things will matter. Consumers will continue to focus less on mid-range purchases, and more on big and small spends. It’s the latter that will benefit fashion accessories. The affordable splurge on a wristlet or keyfob will maintain its appeal from 2016.

Organic fibers will come to the rescue of activewear, and our noses. The apparel industry will begin to rebel against the negative properties of activewear, such as smell. Look for increased promotion of organic fibers calling synthetic fibers out on their challenges with odor and durability.

Struggle and success will weave together for denim this year. Denim has been on the rebound over the past year, and it will struggle to return to its true glory in 2017. But some brands will fill their pockets and find growth.  

There will be an evolution in accessorizing. Technology and innovation have an important place in the world of accessories. The emphasis on carrying a cell phone or tablet in style will be more important than ever. But even the accessories will have to be functional and innovative in order to fit with the current consumer criteria of convenience, need, desire, and price.

Apparel will face a new kind of opponent. The apparel industry will struggle to remain a priority spend, competing for their share of wallet. But it’s not just technology, apparel will go up against intangible purchases too, as younger consumers seek and spend on services and experiences more than ever.  

The first half of this holiday shopping season proved to be a challenging start for the apparel industry. Despite early consumer intentions pointing to apparel as an area of increased spending this holiday season – a 7 percent increase in planned spending over 2015* – that spending doesn’t appear to have happened yet. NPD’s Holiday Shopping Bag 2016 Weekly Report has shown declines in apparel sales from week- to- week when compared to the same time last year, with few exceptions.

Over Thanksgiving week, apparel sales were not as low as earlier in the season, but still down 2 percent against last year and failing to gain momentum against the competition of more exciting and innovative categories for holiday. There were several apparel categories that gained some momentum during this peak week. Within women's dresses, swimwear, socks, and workout wear for women, the big winner. In men's apparel, it was a trip back to traditions with pajamas garnering the most growth for the week, followed by tailored clothing (includes dress and sport shirts, suits and jackets).

In the week after Thanksgiving – Cyber Week – apparel sales fell 5 percent below the same week in 2015. Abundant and deep promotions certainly got the attention of consumers, but it wasn’t enough. Apparel got a slight boost the following week (ending December 10), during the usual holiday lull, with a 1 percent increase in dollar sales compared to last year. Women’s and men’s outerwear were among the top performers, so the weather forecast likely played the biggest role in this shift.

The apparel industry has discounted themselves right off any possible path toward growth. This, combined with the lack of a ‘must have’ fashion item keeps apparel chasing last year’s results. While apparel is not alone in this holiday’s conundrum, the category has a prominent role in holiday retail performance, with 66 percent of consumers planning to purchase clothing during the season*.

There is still time to avoid a complete holiday wardrobe malfunction. In the final stretch of holiday shopping, which typically results in a sales peak close to that of Thanksgiving/Black Friday week, consumers will continue to look for deals, but they are also looking for those last-minute special gifts. The emphasis at retail needs to move toward delivering the products consumers are looking for, not just the price they are looking for.

Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Holiday Shopping Bag 2016 Weekly Report
*Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey