Office Supplies Market Research & Business Solutions

I’ve been using a Franklin Planner for more than 25 years. Much of my adult life is recorded in the paper pages of that calendar system, which is designed to push users to organize their time by focusing on their personal values.

I don’t know if I’ve become more moral, more focused, or more organized over those years. But if I have fallen short in any of those areas, the Franklin isn’t the problem. The Franklin Planner, based loosely on the planning system used by Benjamin Franklin, is about as close to perfect as a planner can be.

It’s also old.

And out of fashion.

Here at The NPD Group, where hundreds of people work, there’s only one other guy I know who uses a Franklin. That guy, and let’s call him Hugh Lookoldtoo, is not a young man. Like me, Hugh is at the tail end of the Boomer generation. We’re not kids, and we’re forever doing those sorts of things that signal our advancing years:  grunting when we get out of chairs, squinting at the whiteboard, talking incessantly about heart-healthy diets, and starting meetings by opening our Franklin Planners.

But if you assume the younger folks at the office roll their eyes at the Franklin and turn to their smart phones, you’re wrong. Our office is filled with young adults using paper planners. But their planners are nothing like the ones that Hugh and I use.

The young people’s planners are brighter and more colorful. They often have a positively juvenile feel about them -- sporting superhero logos or videogame characters or flowers or abstract forms. Their planners are seemingly meant to evoke something about the user, rather than the planner. Personalization is the norm.

There is, however, a group of people who do roll their eyes at both the Franklin and its more youthful competitors. These people, who seem to eschew paper planning all together, are neither old nor young. They are middle-aged, although not entirely comfortable with that idea yet. They are Gen X. And they are the generation that came of age replacing everything old with new digital versions.

They are the folks, in other words, who entered the workforce in the 1990s and early 2000s and used the now all-but-forgotten Palm Pilots.

And they seem to have played a pivotal role in the disappearance of old-style planners and the rise of the new styles.

Assistants and companions
Palm Pilots were wonderful devices. I owned one back in the day, too. But even during the PDA heyday, I kept using my Franklin. Why? Because Palm Pilots were utilitarian. They were efficient. They were convenient.

They were, in other words, the opposite of a Franklin or any other paper planner. Paper planning is meant to be slow, thoughtful. Using a paper planner is akin to keeping a journal. It requires time apart. It insists upon reflection. A PDA like the Palm Pilot was a personal digital assistant. A paper planner is more like a companion. And companions are seeing a resurgence.

Online sales of appointment books and planners jumped 49 percent in dollar terms in the 52 weeks ending January 2, compared to the prior year. At brick-and-mortar stores, sales of books and planners also rose, but only by roughly 7 percent.

And growing even faster than planners themselves are items related to the personalization of planners: the so-called “organizer accessories.”

Dollar sales of those items in brick-and-mortar stores jumped a remarkable 64 percent in the 52 weeks ending January 2 over prior year. Online sales of those same items rose by about 42 percent in dollar terms.

Much of this growth comes from newer, smaller, and/or more youth-focused players in the space.

Dollar sales of my beloved Franklin Planners fell more than 15 percent at brick-and-mortar in the same period, and they dipped slightly more than 7 percent online. Those declines are part of a larger trend for the Franklin. Dollar sales at brick-and-mortar last year were down more than 25 percent from two years earlier. Dollar sales are flat online from two years earlier.

Unit sales online have fallen more than 7 percent in the past two years. At brick-and-mortar stores, unit sales have plummeted 36 percent from two years earlier.

It’s a similar story for another of the classic old-school brands. Unit sales of Rolodex fell more than 60 percent in at brick-and-mortar stores in the year ending January 2.

One notable exception among the older brands is Moleskine. The classic luxury maker of planners and notebooks loved by Picasso and Hemingway has seemingly broken the Millennial code of authenticity, artisan skills, and an appreciation for a distant past they don’t remember. The brand markets itself through a “philosophy” of “culture, travel, memory, imagination, and personal identity.”

Moleskine unit sales at brick-and-mortar stores have skyrocketed 98 percent in the year ending January 2 and more than doubled online!

In fact, that story – old-school brand reinvents itself as a youth-focused maker of colorful, personalized paper companions – is being replicated across the industry. Consider the story of Carolina Pad. The company once made those black-and-white marble composition books. Today they specialize in adorable and colorful items for teens. And with some distribution deals with big-box retailers in hand, dollar sales of the company’s planners rose more than 988 percent in 2015 at brick-and-mortar.

Or consider Blue Sky, maker of pretty, colorful, upbeat planners “thoughtfully designed in sunny southern California.” Dollar and unit sales of Blue Sky products more than doubled online in the year ending
January 2.

It’s hard to argue with success like that. But it’s also hard to change, as Hugh and I can attest. So he and I will keep using our old-school planners. And our Gen X coworkers will keep to their smart-phone calendars, while the Millennials among us, and the companies that understand them, will move on without us and revamp the category.

Paul Conley is the director of content marketing for The NPD Group. When he finished writing this article, he checked it off as “done” in his Franklin Planner.

This how-to on dollar share impact will break down retail data measures for the math-averse. Whether you’re just getting started, or if this isn’t your typical area of focus—this is for you. 

Bet Your Bottom Dollar
Let’s talk numbers. If you’re a market researcher, one measure that will prove handy in tracking your business, brand, or category is dollar share impact.

We’ll get into the specifics of what that means in a moment, but first—here’s why you should care about dollar share impact. Whether you’re deep in the data trenches or sitting around the board room table, it’ll answer questions like these:

• What does a gain or loss in share points (at the business, category, or brand level) translate to in dollars?
• Which factors drive total business up or down, and what contributes most to this increase or decrease in dollar share?
• How can we shed light on the opportunities available to our business, and where should we invest resources?

Here’s a fun example to put it into real-life terms for you:

Pencil World, a giant retailer of—you guessed it—pencils, raked in sales of $22 million last year, in a market that sold $110 million in pencils. (Now that’s a lot of pencils!) Let’s calculate how much a change in Pencil World’s market share from 2013 to 2014 equates to in dollars.

Here are some measures we’ll need in our pencil box to crunch the numbers:

• Current and previous time period dollar share
• Total dollar sales for the current period
• Dollar share point loss or gain
• Value of 1 share point

If you’re thinking, “I’m not sure what that means”—relax. We’ll break it down for you.

1. First, let’s calculate Pencil World’s market dollar share for 2013:
   In 2013, Pencil World enjoyed sales of $25 million in a market that sold $100 million.
   
   Pencil World’s 2013 market dollar share was 25%.
2. Now we’ll do the same dollar share calculations as above, but for 2014:
   In 2014, Pencil World had sales of $22 million in a market that sold $110 million.
   
   Pencil World’s 2014 market dollar share was 20%.
3. Next, calculate how many market share points Pencil World lost from 2013-2014:
   To do this, we use this formula:
   
   So, Pencil World lost 5 market share points from 2013 to 2014.
4. Almost there! Next, determine the value of 1 share point:
   To do this, we divide total current period (2014) sales by 100 points.
   
   So, 1 share point is worth $1.1 million.
5. Finally, calculate the dollar share impact:
   To determine the total dollar share impact of the 5 percentage-point loss, multiply the 5-point loss by the dollar value of 1 point.
   
   Say it with me now! After a 5 percentage-point loss in market share from 2013 to 2014,
   Pencil World experienced a negative dollar share impact of $5.5 million.

Let’s review:

When you want to determine who contributed to total dollar share losses or gains or help your business identify where to invest resources, now you know how to calculate share impact. You can apply the same concept to any category, brand, or item!

Any questions? Contact The NPD Group at 866-444-1411 or email contactnpd@npd.com.

The U.S. office supplies industry enjoyed sales of $23.8 billion in the 12 months ending in June 2015—a YOY increase of 2 percent. Online purchases reached $1.4 billion, and grew at a much faster rate—19 percent—compared to brick-and-mortar sales (1.1 percent).

One of my favorite quotes I’ve heard so far while researching trends on the back-to-school season compares the first day of school to walking the runway, with shoppers taking time to add a bit of ‘extra flair.’* Often times, this thought process applies not only to apparel, but extends to the supplies students carry with them. From what I’ve seen, “school supplies fashion” doesn’t end at high school or college; many professionals take pride in the supplies they carry with them, and use every day. This thought, among many others, crossed my mind as I walked the halls of Paperworld 2016 in Germany this month, and scanned the many styles, colors, fashions, and intricate designs that exist in supplies.

At Paperworld, the design studios of Bora Herke spoke about the anticipated global trends in supplies for 2016 and 2017. Three beautifully designed sets depicted how themes such as floral liberty, graphic vitality, and essential serenity translate in supplies. Terms like ‘bohemian festival’ and ‘retro folklore’ were used to describe floral liberty. Graphic vitality, they said, is created through illustrations, logos, and linear and geometric shapes with bold colors. My personal favorite, essential serenity, brings the minimalist, relaxed, and self-contained styles to life with neutral and sophisticated color combinations including milk-white, stone, cloudy blue, and graphite black highlighted with an apricot burgundy. I’ve seen some of these patterns and graphics in stores already.

As expected there were many variations surrounding themes on licensing, customization, and personalization. In a section of Paperworld called Creativeworld, exhibitor booths included art supplies, live do-it-yourself tutorials, and trends in crafting from around the world. One particular display showed how bland brown paper is used as gift wrap after being given a major face lift with decorative crafting accessories. In the U.S. the handmade movement has nearly doubled in the last decade. Tying in with this trend, patterned, design, and logo decorative tape sales increased by over $2 million in 2015**.

At Paperworld, fine writing pens and pencils were paired with matching fashion accessories like cufflinks. In the U.S., luxury supplies such as fine writing pens and pencils grew $2 million in sales in 2015**. Similar to what was being showcased on the conference floors, popular fine writing barrel colors including classic black, blue, and silver experienced the largest dollar growth in 2015, with fountain and gel leading the growth out of all fine writing pen types**.

In 2013, we saw stores full of neon and brightly colored supplies. In the years that followed, color assortments expanded beyond that, with popular shades swaying toward neutrals, pastels, metallic, and other bold and sophisticated color combinations. While we generally attribute fashion trends to industries such as apparel, fashion has become an integral part of the school and office supplies industry. Notebooks that evoke a sense of essential serenity say something about our personality, just as a fresh outfit on our first day of class.

*Source: The New York Times, “Back-to-School Shopping Campaigns, Already?” (May 2013)
**The NPD Group, Inc. / Weekly Retail Tracking Service, 52 weeks ending January 2, 2016

Consumers’ fascination with adult coloring books is only one example of the many developments within the handmade movement that’s helping to boost sales of coloring, art, and writing supplies. According to NPD data, retail sales of coloring and art supplies reached $1.1 billion in 2015 after growing over $125 million in the past two years. The fourth quarter makes up nearly half of unit and dollar sales online for these supplies, with consumers shopping for holiday gift ideas or using these supplies for craft-related projects. At retail stores, over 30 percent of yearly dollar sales occur during the fourth quarter, with consumers purchasing gifts like art kits or even self-gifting items like adult coloring books*. For adult coloring books, approximately 1-in-10 adults currently own one, and 1-in-5 are still interested in buying one**.

Over the last 10 years, the handmade movement as a whole has nearly doubled. Millennials are driving the growth within this movement, making up half of crafters and spending twice as much as any other demographic***. The handmade movement is attractive to Millennials aligning with important values such as authenticity, self-expression, and empowerment through a do-it-yourself approach, all while promoting the spirit of education, good health, and entrepreneurship. Millennials are frequenting wine and paint nights, art classes, and crafting events, and their affinity for working with their hands and sharing their creativity is not exclusive. Other generations are participating and contributing to this movement as well. On Etsy, for example, 63 percent of sellers are 35 years of age or older.

The handmade movement is estimated to be a $29 billion industry and it’s expected to continue to grow***. With the widespread availability and adoption of visual social media platforms like Instagram, Pinterest, and YouTube, new ideas, projects, or activities which were once done at home alone or with a small circle of friends are now being shared with millions. Social networking websites like Coursehorse.com and Meetup.com provide crafters, artists, and makers with an opportunity to connect with likeminded individuals, exchange ideas, and meet-up at common ‘makerspaces.’ Strangers become project buddies, teachers, and even friends. In addition to the social element of crafting, marketplaces such as Amazon, eBay, and Etsy provide the crafter with a platform to not only share ideas, but start and grow a business as well.

In the U.S., craft stores are expanding their footprint to meet the needs of this growing movement, and mass merchandisers are also responding by expanding their craft department presence both inside the store and online. As old trends fade out and new ones pick up, it will be important to pay attention and maintain a pulse on the market potential and permeation of popular trends.

*The NPD Group, Inc. / Weekly Retail Tracking Service, 52 weeks ending January 02, 2016
**CivicScience
***“Etsy and Pinterest Allow Millennials to Leave Their ‘Maker’s Mark,’” Millennial Marketing, 2016

As the large glass doors slide open, a rush of sounds race to greet my sister and I – metal clinking, repetitive beeps, the rustle of plastic, and bits of chatter overheard from nearby conversations. An hour later, we emerge from the aisles and park our overfilled carts at the register line. Next to the groceries are needed bathroom and kitchen items, cosmetics, and home office supplies. Every Sunday, my sister and I attempt to run the majority of household errands together before the start of our work weeks.

Our Sunday routine, while small in comparison to the retail spending universe, is actually part of a broader change that’s influencing the retail space, from office supplies to apparel and everything in between. It’s estimated that women will make up nearly three-quarters of consumer spending globally by 2028. In the U.S., nearly half of the total labor force is made up of women balancing home life with work life.* Millennial moms are a growing segment and account for 46 percent of their age group, with 71 percent working outside of the home**. According to the Pew Research Center, 40 percent of women act as the sole or primary source of income for the family. Gender lines are blurring and it’s happening in a multitude of ways. For office supplies industry players, the consumer segment of working women is an important one, especially when considering their shopping and buying behaviors for their home office, small business, and on-site office needs.

In the office supplies industry, retail sales outside of the back-to-school season shift towards the small- and medium-sized business customer, which includes freelancers and home office workers. In 2015, NPD found that office supplies retail sales outside of the back-to-school season grew 3 percent, and accounted for 72 percent of total yearly office supplies sales growth***. According to the Freelancers Union, approximately 34 percent of the U.S. population works as a freelancer and this number is expected to increase to 50 percent by 2020. Women make up more than half of all full-time freelancers. Types of freelancing vary from self-employed moonlighters to full-time independent contractors, and work can be done on-site or from a home office. Increased usage of social media alongside the evolution and prevalence of online marketplaces have really helped to encourage freelancing as an alternative or bonus to traditional part-time and full-time employment. On Etsy, for example, over 80 percent of sellers are female and 36 percent hold a full-time job in addition to their online business—a 10 percentage point increase versus 2013. Self-employed women make up 40 percent of the self-employed workforce* and female entrepreneurship is on the rise.

Overall, there is also a growing segment of women working from home. Amidst a growing population of employees that work from a home office or distribute their weekly working hours between home and office, women made up 39 percent of these teleworkers in 2015, up 10 percent from 2013****. The work-from-home woman spans several consumer segments including working from home supporting a large corporation, freelancing, or as a business owner.

From product development and merchandising to where she’s shopping and what she’s buying, the changing female consumer demographic opens doors to new opportunities for retailers and manufacturers. For those serving the home office, self-employed, and freelance worker it’s important to take into account these changes, and pay close attention to the working professional woman and in what ways her behaviors, preferences, and needs vary at retail.

*Source: U.S. Department of Labor
**Source: Exponential
***The NPD Group, Inc. / Office Supplies Weekly Retail Tracking Service (excludes Janitorial and Breakroom)
****Source: Flex+Strategy Group/Work+Life Fit, Inc.