Toys Market Research & Business Solutions

Get this 18-month forecast that covers total toys, including 11 super categories and 106 subclasses in Canada, the U.S., Australia, and European markets.

NPD announces the winners of NPD U.S. Toy Industry Awards given to manufacturers of 2018’s top-selling toys property and top-selling toys by supercategory

Toy industry sales decreased by 2 percent* in 2018 across the 13 global markets (G13)** tracked by The NPD Group, a leading global information company.

NPD announced winners of the company’s latest Europe Toy Industry Awards. The awards, given to the manufacturers of Europe’s top-selling toy properties by category, as well as the top selling toy property of the year, were presented to the recipients at Nuremberg International Toy Fair in Germany.

According to NPD, U.S. retail sales of toys generated $21.6 billion in 2018 compared to $22.0 billion in 2017, a decline of 2 percent that comes after four straight years of growth in the toy industry.

U.S. toy industry sales increased by $264 million to $11.6 billion, a 2 percent increase over the same period last year

According to The NPD Group, global toy industry sales grew $409 million to $27.4 billion year to date, a 1.5 percent increase over the same time period last year, with most of the growth due to sales in the Americas, which is up 3.3 percent. Europe and Australia saw declines of 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

While parents spend the most on toys, grandparents’ spending growth in the last 12 months exceeded nearly all other consumer segments, including parents. In addition, grandparents’ online spend has grown at a faster rate than any other toy consumers.

Market research company NPD Group provides total industry consumer spend on U.S. video gaming for the first half of 2018.

Across the global markets tracked by NPD, toy industry sales reached $18.4 billion in the first half of 2018. Traditional play patterns, collectibles, social media and innovation were the trending themes.

The U.S. toy industry grew 7 percent to $7.9 billion in the first half of 2018. Over these six months, which included the beginning and end of the Toys“R”Us liquidation, there were a number of catalysts for growth.

Christmas has its way of creeping up on many of us, myself included.  Every year around this time, I go through a mad rush when it suddenly dawns on me that Christmas is just days away …  six days/144 hours to be exact.  That’s all the time I have to get through my to-do list before everyone arrives at home to celebrate the biggest family gathering of the year.  The pressure is on, but I can take it.

I had it easy in the last few years, going over to mum or the in-laws for the annual Christmas gathering. Then, I only had to think about Christmas gifts, not the slew of activities that came with being the host.  A long list of presents to find (usually in the range of 25 gifts) was daunting but manageable after two or three weekends of shopping. I usually began in mid-November with the occasional online shopping around Black Friday; and I was ‘all done’ around 10 days before Christmas without fail, with the last shopping days being used to tie up loose ends.  But this year, it is our turn to host! We have invited both families to our house – that’s 15 people to feed and house over the course of several days. The pressure is building; I still have presents to buy! I’m not in a good shape.  Six days to go and I’m scrambling to buy a new refrigerator, desperately trying to find a new double-bed and a sofa bed for home delivery.  I have ordered the Christmas Eve seafood platter, sourced the venison but haven’t found the ham or the champagne. And toys for the kids? Argh! I am still missing a present for my 15-year-old son, one for the 9-year old nephew, an amazing gift for the godson who already has everything and, of course, the family fun game we will all be playing on Christmas day.

And I am not alone.  Every year, NPD reports that Christmas is happening later and later (even though it’s always on December 25). This year, Christmas day falls on a Tuesday. It also fell on a Tuesday in 2012, when sales in all major countries were sluggish until the last three weeks of the year; and by three weeks, I really mean two full weeks, including a Sunday and a Monday (proof that much of the consumer purchasing is done at the last minute).  In NPD’s 2017 Christmas Wishlist study, we found that 38 percent of French shoppers started their Christmas shopping in early December, and 22 percent at the end of December. And more than half of all French shoppers finished their shopping in late December, with a quarter of them saying they finished shopping later in 2017 than they did in 2016. The results were similar in all countries. So, no, I am not alone.  I do wonder – and am a bit envious of – the 21 percent of people who start shopping in October (because I don’t know any). The interesting thing about the early shoppers is that they tend to spend more as they shop for a longer period of time.

In any case, I cannot wait to read the results of the 2018 Christmas Wishlist study, which we will be fielding straight after Christmas in all major European countries. The results will be available in early February.  I wonder if ‘lateness’ will have become stronger again, and how the industry will react and adapt to this. I also look forward to analyzing the spend on categories outside of toys and the impact this had on toys sales. 

Black Friday sets a mood for the consumer and is an indication of things to come. But, while a good Black Friday makes us all feel holiday will do well, a poor one doesn’t mean poor growth performance for the holiday overall.

Whether they were in New York, Virginia, Florida, Illinois, or Texas, there were common themes that each of our industry advisors noticed as they hit the stores over this peak holiday shopping period. The biggest callout – Black Friday weekend has changed.

Click on the bars below to see the recaps, and follow #NPDHoliday on Twitter to see everything our advisors saw in their Black Friday travels.

The Industry Advisors

• Marshal Cohen
  Chief Industry Advisor, Retail
  @marshalcohen
• Stephen Baker
  Vice President, Industry Advisor, Technology and Mobile
  @NPDSteveBaker
• Matt Powell
  Vice President, Senior Industry Advisor, Sports
  @NPDMattPowell
  
• Juli Lennett
  Senior Vice President, Industry Advisor, Toys
  @JuliLennett
• Joe Derochowski, Executive Director, Home, Appliances
  @JoeDerochowski
• David Portalatin 
  Vice President, Industry Advisor, Food
  @NPDPortalatin

Insights from the Experts

1. Marshal Cohen – This Black Friday was very telling – it had a lot to say

Marshal Cohen
Chief Industry Advisor, Retail

This Black Friday was very telling – it had a lot to say.

The deals were plentiful, both in offerings and depth of product, but by day’s end, there was still product left, though not piled as high as at the start. The days of stampedes of shoppers fighting for too-good-to-be-true deals on limited quantity items seem to be gone. Instead, there were a fair number of shoppers queued up at store openings and seeking deals in a more orderly fashion.

Retailers were more prepared and organized than ever before which helped to create this sense of calm in a storm of deal hunting. Black Friday spread continued with some retailers, like Best Buy, starting their Black Friday promotions as early as November 1st. Online retailers, like Amazon, also got in the action well before Cyber Monday. Staggered opening times helped to eliminate some of the chaos, allowing the 20 percent of consumers who shopped Black Friday weekend to casually, and strategically, go from one store to another. New digital maps offered guidance to those items, and in-aisle checkouts made for a modern, speedy, and efficiently painless shopping process. Rather than relying on the element of surprise, retailers shared deals ahead of time, and offered larger quantities of door-buster product. Perhaps the biggest shift came from stores stepping up their online game, giving consumers more shopping alternatives.

The focus of the weekend has also changed. Shoppers and promotions were both focused more on self-gifting items like smart home and robotic vacuums than more personal gift items. Fewer shopping bags pointed to in-store shopping followed by mobile purchasing – avoiding the need to cash-and-carry, especially large items.

New trends emerging.

NPD’s Checkout data revealed that 2017’s peak holiday shopping occurred from noon to 4:00pm on Black Friday. Similar to last year, it was a slow start Thursday night, but by Friday at noon the malls were packed with shoppers. Last year, we saw surges on Thursday at 6:00pm, and on Saturday from noon to 2:00pm. Some of this year’s surges lasted longer, depending on where you were.

Thursday night went to Best Buy, Walmart, and Target. Once the peak hit on Friday, the malls were bustling and store traffic reached an all-time high at outlet centers across the east coast. In some cases, parking lots filled beyond capacity, and the sides of the highway became an alternate parking option. In the 20 years I’ve been doing this, I’ve never seen it so packed.

Apple, Pandora, and Adidas were among the busiest stores. Athletic/active apparel inspired stores, and apparel chain stores with aggressive discounts fared well overall. Mall based mass merchants, like Kohl’s, Target, and Walmart had a great range of successes in electronics, small appliances, toys, and select apparel. Best Buy did great with efficient offerings, toys, and self-gifting consumers.

Positive signs, but still room for improvement.

All in all, this was a great Black Friday. Consumers came out in droves and retailers stepped up efforts around inventory and servicing. Consumers still seemed excited about last year’s product innovations, and pricing was not as high as many predicted. All of this sets a healthy tone and good momentum for the holiday season. But, retailers can still do a better job of using technology in stores to create the endless aisle. They have the opportunity to provide more innovation, in the product and how it is sold.

Black Friday was a huge success for retail this year, making it clear that stores are not dead. Rather, stores have entered a transformation that will strengthen their ability to compete. The biggest challenge will be to extend this excitement beyond the holiday shopping season.

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2. Stephen Baker – There is so much more to holiday shopping for Tech than just Black Friday

Stephen Baker
Vice President, Industry Advisor, Technology and Mobile

There is so much more to holiday shopping for Tech than just Black Friday.

“It’s the end of the world (Black Friday) as we know it, and I feel fine.” With apologies to REM, I think this sums up this weekend nicely.

We have been rapidly moving towards this point over the last few years – in fact, check out my quote in a 2010 TWICE article. We are at a point where the focus on Black Friday is totally misplaced. Over the last 8 years the fastest growing week for the tech industry has been Cyber Week, which represented almost 16 percent of sales in 2017, up from 12 percent in 2010. Thanksgiving week is key as well, steadily representing about 22 percent of all sales over that same time period, despite the growth in Cyber Week volumes. Consumers really have, as I said eight years ago, adopted their shopping patterns over to the reality of today’s retail – they now seem to view the intersection of retail and online seamlessly. We observed that trend over this year’s holiday shopping weekend, with seemingly diminished crowds on Thanksgiving evening and on Black Friday morning, followed by rapidly mounting traffic as Friday wore on. These shopping patterns prove that consumers will shop in stores when the time and product is right, but will also take advantage of the many blessings afforded to them by at-home shopping at any time of day.

This holiday is likely to be a continuation of the strong momentum we have seen all year in the tech market. TVs, as they always do, will lead the way. But, once again, we would expect to see the most popular deals drive consumers into higher price-points and bigger screen sizes this year. The other segment to call out for 2018 is smart home, and not just the smart speaker giveaway fest sponsored by Google and Amazon, but the myriad of products and prices afforded on all the next level of Smart Home goods, from locks and doorbells to cameras and lighting. The rapid expansion of these products into adjacent channels – from mass merchants and discounters like Kohl’s, to sporting goods and hardware stores – helped to make smart home products the most widely available technology products this Thanksgiving week.

We remain enthusiastic about the holiday season for the tech industry, and believe our three percent revenue growth goal is not only reachable, but also likely to be exceeded.

3. Matt Powell – Black Friday was a blend of bland and bold for Sports

Matt Powell
Vice President, Senior Industry Advisor, Sports

Black Friday was a blend of bland and bold for Sports.

After what was the most promotional holiday ever in 2017, as expected, holiday 2018 looks like it will eclipse last year.

With no true hot item or look, and with major brand drivers in a soft patch, brands and retailer must promote to drive sales. The brands were particularly aggressive this year at the expense of their wholesale partners. On the retail side, Dick’s took the bold stance of 25 percent off the entire store.

Traffic was very weak to start off the day, as Black Friday creep moved sales to earlier in the month. Clearly the ease of shopping on the internet precluded consumers from having to get up early and stand in lines. Parking lots filled up later in the day, but it did not appear that many were actually buying. The longest line I saw was at Starbucks.

Many of the Black Friday shoe releases were uninspiring, with brands still trying to force performance footwear on an athleisure market. However, there were a couple of bright spots for the sport industry. Fashion outerwear and fashion cold weather boots seemed to be moving well, as they had been for the last eight weeks.

All in, a lackluster start to what will likely be a lackluster holiday for sports retail.

4. Juli Lennett – Black Friday is as much about options as it is about bargains

Juli Lennett
Senior Vice President, Industry Advisor, Toys

Black Friday is as much about options as it is about bargains.

I admit it. I do not like shopping and I especially don’t like shopping on Black Friday. I don’t like hunting for a parking spot, I don’t like crowds, and I hate waiting in line. Patience is not my virtue. This Black Friday was a bit different – it was my job to go shopping on Black Friday. I didn’t actually have to buy anything, just observe, so I wouldn’t be forced to wait in any long lines. Overall the experience wasn’t as bad as I anticipated and, in fact, I enjoyed most of it. And, if I was going to spend time stalking people so I could take their parking spot, and immerse myself in wall-to-wall people, then I was going to take advantage of some Black Friday deals.

The two things that really stuck out for me this year were the timing of the crowds and the shopper experience.

My experience was that the serious bargain hunters did their most important shopping (for themselves) when the stores opened on Thanksgiving. But after a few hours, those hunters had gone home—they had swooped in and swooped out. They knew exactly what they wanted. Another large group of shoppers seem to have shopped online to get their favorite deals but then took advantage of in-store pick-up on Black Friday—there were long lines for BOPUS. The rest of the shoppers casually drifted into stores throughout the day on Black Friday, but not too early, and continued shopping until the stores closed.

In terms of the shopper experience, I was very impressed with the effort from most of the retailers to create a positive in-store shopping experience. From providing apps with maps to find exactly what you were looking for, to providing plenty of courteous, helpful, and cheerful staff on the floor ready to service customers.

However, there are still two areas where retailers could improve. First, get buyers out the door more quickly with multiple checkout options—arm employees with devices to check-out shoppers in the section where they shop, or provide self-checkout. Buyers who thought the lines were too long abandoned their items, or even full carts, in the stores – not good for the retailer or consumer. Second, if the item is out of stock, make it easy for shoppers to buy the item while they are in the store and eager to make a purchase. If the answer the shopper gets is to “go online”, chances are the shopper will find a better price online and buy it from your competitor.

If we do this again next year, I’ll need a more comfortable pair of shoes.

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5. Joe Derochowski – The spirit of Black Friday has expanded

Joe Derochowski
Executive Director, Home, Appliances

The spirit of Black Friday has expanded.

I am preparing for the day when my kids ask “Is there really a Santa Claus?”, armed with the response that Christmas is “something bigger, it is about the spirit of the season”. Black Friday used to be a single day filled with early morning shopping frenzy and busy traffic all day where consumers were pining to purchase items at bargain prices. Similar to my impending Santa Claus question, today, Black Friday is about something bigger, it’s about bargain shopping spread over multiple days and shopping platforms.

The mad rush has moved from Friday morning to Thursday night, at least for those retailers who were open on Thursday. While store managers said that Friday was busier than last year, Store managers and employees all talked about how Thursday night was “crazy” – it was busier than Friday. There was an evident scramble on Friday to deal with the stock outs and refresh the look of the merchandise. On the other hand, similar to recent years, there were no lines early Friday morning – other than a few people looking for deals on TV’s. The shopping really looked like any other Friday, with huge traffic flows from 11:00am to 4:00pm. Many consumers said they started much of their shopping on Wednesday because they could access the Black Friday deals that early.

Retailers have also done a much better job of integrating online shopping with in-store. The online promotions are reflecting the same promotions seen in the circular and in the store. This makes for a more seamless consumer shopping experience, but does pose some operational challenges for store employees looking to maintain the parallels amidst the mad rush of shoppers.

The door-busting categories for the early shopper seem to be led by TV’s and computers. At Menards, the drivers were dog beds, quilts, and step ladders. The home categories that received the most promotion were the categories that have been hot all year – Instant Pot, air fryers, coffeemakers, cookware, Dyson stick vacuums, upright vacuums, iRobot and Ecovac robotic vacuums, and electric toothbrushes. I expect to see these categories leading the sales for this week.

The majority of consumers have mixed feelings, but those who are the true ‘treasure hunters’ do miss the Black Friday bustle of years past. While Black Friday, the day, is no more, in-store traffic showed that consumers embraced the spirit of the day on Friday and the days preceding. All indications are this should be a good Holiday season, with both consumers and retailers emerging as winners.

6. David Portalatin – Black Friday is for leftovers

David Portalatin
Vice President, Industry Advisor, Food

Black Friday is for leftovers

I’ve never paid much attention to Black Friday before. As NPD’s Food Industry Advisor, my focus has always been on the big meal. I look at the way grocery retailers and food manufacturers collaborate to provide convenient yet authentic meal solutions for the vast majority of American’s who either feasted at home or prepared a dish to take to someone else’s home on Thanksgiving day. As far as Black Friday dining goes – many of us are too stuffed, and gorging on leftovers, to eat out at a restaurant.

In fact, on any given day in America, 13 percent of our meals are sourced from a restaurant. On Black Friday, that number is 12.4 percent. In other words, for restaurants, Black Friday is much like any other day. Many observers who are rightly awed at the throngs amassing at retail storefronts reasonably assume that adjacent eateries and mall food courts must pick up some customer traffic. It’s a reasonable assumption, albeit an incorrect one. Long Black Friday lines at Starbucks, or a crowded independent full-service establishment, are likely to exist on any other day.

For Black Friday shoppers, the pursuit of the elusive deal and beating the crowd to the next door buster takes priority over stopping to eat. After all, there are leftovers aplenty waiting at home!

Now, Valentine’s day…..let’s talk restaurants then!

This is a snapshot of our advisors’ Black Friday 2018 observations across apparel, appliances, food consumption, foodservice, home, retail, sports, technology, and toys. Follow #NPDHoliday to see what they are observing throughout the holiday shopping season. For more in-depth perspectives across our other industries, visit our Holiday Insights page.

When Cristiano Ronaldo announced this summer that he was leaving Real Madrid, it’s safe to assume that more than one child thought of his next season's sticker album. It’s a fact that the return to school also marks the return of one of the most repeated traditions year after year (along with putting the books in the backpack): collecting Football League cards (known as soccer in the U.S.).

In the last three years, the passion for ‘the beautiful game’ has triggered the increasing popularity of card collecting in our country. Through the end of August 2018, the sale of football cards has grown almost 30 percent compared to 2015. Some of this can be attributed to this year’s World Cup; but even before the World Cup, football card sales experienced double-digit increases.

If we look at the Top 10 of all the cards that have sold the most in the Spanish market between January and August 2018, we see that 8 of the 10 products correspond to football cards. And 7 of those 8 items belong to the collectibles of the Spanish League. We only find one product corresponding to the World Cup of Russia and two that have nothing to do with this sport: the collections of Gorjuss and Invizimals. This Top 10 shows that the domination of the League's cards is overwhelming.

The World Cup has less pull than the League

The attraction for collectible football cards has also been reflected this summer in the World Cup cards, whose sales have skyrocketed by 90 percent compared to the figures that were recorded four years ago, on the occasion of the World Cup in Brazil. Sales were concentrated mainly in April (when the collection went on sale) and June (the week in which the competition began). But when Spain was eliminated (July 1), interest in the competition fell sharply and that was reflected in sales.

Nevertheless, so far this year, the World Cup cards represent less than 30 percent of the total sales of football cards.

New League, new cards

In August, once the World Cup has ended, new cards of the next competition begin showing up. The new item of Panini, La Liga Santander 2018-2019 Blister of 10 Envelopes, broke into the market with force and directly reached the second position of best-selling toys in Spain during the month of August, coinciding with the start of the Football League. Its price stands at 6.90 euros.

This product continues to perform well in September, as it is in these days when collectors want to begin to complete their albums. In addition, the fact that many households bought stickers of the World Cup during the summer has caused slightly delayed sales of the  cards of the league 2018-2019, so we can expect to see continued, significant growth in the coming weeks.

A lot has happened in the last six months since the big announcement that Toys‟R”Us would be liquidating its stores in the U.S. Based on some of the news reports in mid-March, when this was first announced, you might have predicted that the sky would have fallen by now and the toy industry would be a shell of itself.

Well, that didn’t happen. Why not?

As I wrote in my blog back in March, NPD found that when parents bought a toy last year at Toys‟R”Us, over 70 percent of them were purchased for a specific occasion like a birthday or Christmas. In addition, 70 percent of toys purchased at Toys‟R”Us were purchased because kids asked for the specific toy or brand of toy. Even without Toys‟R”Us, Christmas and birthdays aren’t going away, and kids will continue to ask their parents and grandparents for their favorite toy and get it.

As we move into the most important time of the year when nearly 50 percent of all U.S. toy sales occur, the question is, what impact will the liquidation have on the U.S. toy industry’s holiday season? After all, parents bought a lot of toys during the 16 weeks of the liquidation and are hoarding them to give away at Christmas, right?

Well, yes, but to a small degree.

In a recent study that NPD conducted in the U.S., 83 percent of consumers who bought a toy during the liquidation at Toys‟R”Us reported that they already had or would give the toy away by the end of September. That leaves only 17 percent who reported that they would be giving the toy away some time in Q4. And, interestingly, the #1 occasion that the liquidation toys were purchased for was for a birthday. Christmas came in third place, behind “No Special Occasion.”

What does this mean to the toy industry in Q4? It’s pretty simple actually. Based on my estimates, pantry loading will have a negative impact of 1.4 percent on Q4 sales. In addition, we can expect to see about 20 percent of Toys‟R”Us sales simply evaporate. This translates to an additional negative impact of about 2 percent. The total negative impact on Q4 should be about 3.4 percent if everything else remains status quo compared to last year.

But, that’s the big question mark. Is everything going to remain status quo compared to last year?

I think the Toys‟R”Us news has re-energized the toy industry. Existing toy retailers are making bigger investments in toys, new toy retailers are emerging, and manufacturers are looking for new avenues of distribution. Another likely outcome is that toy manufacturers will become more creative and we’ll see more interesting and unique products coming down the pike.

If there is one thing I feel confident about, it’s that the toy industry will be anything but status quo in Q4.

Last week’s news of Toys“R”Us shuttering its doors sent shockwaves throughout the toy industry, as noted by my colleague, Juli Lennett, in her latest blog. The global toy industry is bracing itself and trying to work out what this ‘reset’ will mean and how it will navigate the upcoming months. And the question on everyone’s lips right now is who will benefit from Toys “R”Us demise; and if it happens, which retailers will see this disruption as an opportunity, country by country. 

In the U.S., Toys“R”Us captures in excess of 90 percent of toy specialty sales; in Europe, it accounts for about one quarter of the toy specialty market. Toys“R”Us is the largest toy specialty retailer in Europe, but it is not the only specialty retailer. In fact, there are no significant international toy chain stores that cross all of Europe. Rather, in each country, we have local players with up to six major chains as is the case in France, which means the specialty trade is not going to be orphaned if and when Toys “R”Us closes down or fails to secure a buyer. These other specialist chains are in a prime position to pick up some of the Toys “R”Us business.

Beside specialty retailers, online seems to be an obvious destination for the Toys “R”Us shopper.  As described by Juli Lennett, the typical Toys “R”Us purchase is either occasion-driven or from a direct request from the child.  As such, the shopper will easily navigate online to find a replacement for its closed Toys “R”Us store and might order online for sheer convenience.  You have to remember that online toy sales comprise a bigger piece of the pie in Europe compared to the U.S. In the U.S., approximately 24 percent of toy industry sales happen online; in Europe, it’s 30 percent. Every brick and mortar toy retailer today has an online presence, but to compete with online pure players, brick and mortar retailers serious about the toy category will have to combine strong pricing and promotion with state-of-the art digital marketing to compete effectively in this space.

This reset is also an opportunity for other channels to step up to the plate – I tend to see the glass half-full rather than half-empty.  What I mean is that on the whole, grocery stores in Europe have been considering the toy aisle as a loss leader and footfall driver in the last quarter of the year.  They have historically only carried a small amount of toys in spring and summer, with increased inventory over the holidays.  What I think is that smart grocery retailers will look at the Toys“R”Us closure as an opportunity – like the U.K. grocers did when Woolworths, then the second largest toy retailer, went bankrupt there in 2009. In Europe, as online sales continue to climb, the one channel that is not as impacted by online sales or footfall decline is food retail. Increasing toy inventory as a year-round proposition would surely compel shoppers to purchase more within this channel. I imagine these retailers are beginning to consider increasing this space to offer more toys and drive their non-food trade. 

Beyond grocery, other non-traditional retailers should consider doing the same. For example, outdoor and sports toys could be carried with success by sporting goods retailers, while arts and crafts toys could be carried by hobby and office supply stores (more than they do today). Major manufacturers are also already targeting food and non-food discounters, so taking this approach isn’t a stretch.  

While the Toys“R”Us outcome is not the news we wished to hear, and the industry will encounter some turbulence as it navigates its way through this period of flux, manufacturers and retailers do have a chance to view this situation as a global business opportunity.

The news last week that Toys‟R”Us will be closing all its stores in the U.S. has been a blow to the toy industry. Employees at Toys‟R”Us, many of whom we consider our friends, will lose their jobs, and children and parents will lose an experience they so loved, of going to a toy store that had everything under one roof.

What has disheartened me above all is that analysts have been saying the toy industry will decline by 15-20 percent in 2018. These numbers defy both math and common sense. Parents that would go to Toys‟R”Us for a birthday or Christmas gift will not stop buying that gift; they will likely go somewhere else for it. Consumers will not put an end to buying toys because their local Toys‟R”Us store closed its doors. That just defies logic.

Let me set the record straight, using actual facts and figures, on what will likely happen to the toy industry when Toys‟R”Us closes all its doors in the U.S.

Toys‟R”Us represented about 12 percent of U.S. toy industry sales in 2017, according to NPD’s Consumer Tracking Service . Assuming that every single parent that would have purchased a toy from Toys‟R”Us now decides their child isn’t getting a toy this year because Toys‟R”Us isn’t there anymore, the worst case scenario is that the toy industry will decline by 12 percent.

Also worthy to note, NPD found that when parents bought a toy last year at Toys‟R”Us, 70 percent of them were purchased for an occasion like a birthday (23 percent) or Christmas (34 percent). The other 30 percent bought a toy for no special reason. In addition, nearly 70 percent of toys purchased at Toys‟R”Us were purchased because kids asked for the specific toy or brand of toy.

Let’s crunch the numbers a bit more and assume some parents instead choose to buy that toy from another retailer. We can safely assume that parents will continue to buy for occasions like a birthday and Christmas, and we can assume that some parents will still buy presents for no special reason. Let’s apply the 80/20 rule and say that 80 percent of those Toys‟R”Us parents actually do still buy toys. If this happens—which I argue is the more likely scenario—the organic decline for the total toy industry will be in the low single digits.

Since I have your attention, I’d also like to address the recent conversations that have emerged suggesting the demise of Toys‟R”Us is due to the “fact” that kids aren’t playing with toys any longer. The fact of the matter is the global toy industry* last year was the largest it has ever been in the history of the industry. In the U.S., the toy industry has grown 4.5 percent on average over the last three years. Does that scream “kids aren’t playing with toys?”

Technology has impacted toy sales, without a doubt, but the industry has a track record of responding and recuperating. When tablets were all the rage, we saw a slowdown in toy sales, but sales have recovered. In 2017, the video game industry had a great Q4 and was likely a contributor to the slowdown of toy sales during that quarter. I expect toys will recover again, as the video game industry also goes through cycles. Let’s remember that kids are not myopic in their “play.” They have the innate ability to enjoy playing with toys, games, and video games as well as watching television, playing sports, sending snaps, and getting good grades. It’s amazing they can do all these things, and it’s important to not lose sight of the fact that each activity holds its own role in their development.

The noise level is rising in light of the Toys‟R”Us news to the point where much of what we’re seeing in the press is being over exaggerated; and this has to stop. Collectively, we must focus on the facts, and use them to inform our decisions. As an industry, we also have to plan for a successful holiday season, as there will be plenty of amazing new toys to spark our kids’ imaginations.

*Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service/G11

I am just returning from New York, going through my numerous follow-ups, and trying to make sense of all the meetings I had and all the new toys I saw at Toy Fair (to foresee what big trends will emerge this coming Christmas). As much as I see clearly what is going to happen this spring—with an outpouring of unicorns, slime, squishies, toilet humor, and collectibles’ bonanza all trying to break through on social media with unboxing and user-generated content aplenty—I am not too sure about Christmas 2018 just yet.

The fact is, as we all know, last Christmas didn’t quite turn out as planned. Sure, some brands had resounding success and were sold out well before the big day. But all in all, Christmas 2017 has left me with a bitter taste in my mouth, and it’s not going away.

My colleagues and I spent most of November and December trying to reassure ourselves and our clients that the negative trends we saw in all countries were going to reverse in the last two weeks of the year, as consumers were going to rush in stores or frenetically click online to finalize their toy shopping, and all would be good in the end. Though this sort of did happen, it was just too little, too late. And although the industry is coming to terms with the fact that kids and parents start thinking about the holiday much later, the fact is fewer toys were sold in the last two months of 2017 than in 2016. Why? And how can we overturn that?

In NPD’s Global Holiday/Christmas Study, we surveyed thousands of parents after the holiday season to ask about their shopping behavior for their own children during Holiday 2017, with the objective to better understand what exactly happened. The first interesting thing parents told us is that, overall, they increased their gifting budget compared to 2016. So, the economy and potential strain on disposable income was not a negative factor – even though about one-quarter of parents acknowledged also buying a second-hand gift for their child, too.

Let’s say that we believe the parents when they tell us they spent more. Then what did they buy? Unfortunately, we discovered that between 70 percent and 80 percent of parents bought toys for their children, depending on the country; and even if toys is the category with the highest penetration, this is far from the 100 percent we would hope for, even when we drill down at younger age groups. Other categories were more popular, increased penetration, and possibly had more ‘wow.’ But on the whole, parents reported being happy with the choice of toys on offer, and they didn’t spend less because they failed to find exciting new toys. 

So, did they buy more for less on promotion? Yes, to some extent we note that promotions, especially those running online, were a determinant factor to buy ‘that day.’ We also know that when consumers buy online they tend to stick to their shopping list and impulse purchases, which are quite common in-store, are almost non-existent online. We also found budget disparities between late and early shoppers.

With the challenges facing the toy industry today, it needs to find a new path for profitable growth. I think that one of our biggest opportunities is to restore the perceived value of toys and make sure that promotions are incremental, as opposed to taking value out of the industry. And if we are to win share back, we must work together to keep consumers interested. This needs to be a year-round activity, and it needs to happen in-store and online, with the best assortment possible and the most incremental promotions to make it happen.  

The first ‘Black Friday’ email landed in my inbox with Thanksgiving still a week away. May I just say that I think this is a really bad idea? What is the point of discounting toys in the weeks and days before Christmas? The global toy industry earns 50 percent of its revenue in the last quarter of the year, so why is there a need to cut margins right at the moment when parents and givers want to (and will always) buy toys? The fact is, toy sales during Black Friday declined in UK, France, Germany, and Italy last year; only Spain – where the adoption of the event is very recent – saw an increase, so it is likely that they will follow in the footsteps of the other European markets.

What we should collectively think about is how to drive growth for the global toy industry outside of the peak season. How can we convince consumers to part with their cash in the summer, for Easter, for back-to-school, for their holiday trips, for children’s day or grandparents’ day, and so on… anything other than the run-up to Christmas!

In fact, there are some wonderful examples of occasions around the world which have grown the toy market. In my opinion, the best one for a long time has been the ‘Toy Cat’ event in Australia. Pure invention from retailers, the event started with a dual purpose: clear the decks to make space (discount) and launch brand new autumn/winter toys in the middle of their (cold!) winter as kids spend more time indoors. Though it has now fizzled out a bit as some retailers have changed their strategy, it worked well for a number of years, so much so that the ‘toy cat’ period was almost as big as December at one point.

There are many other examples from around the world where we see an uplift in toy sales: Children’s Day in Mexico; Women’s Day and Men’s Day in Russia; Chinese New Year and Singles’ Day in China; the Epiphany in Spain and Italy; and Saint Nicholas’ Day in the Netherlands and Belgium. In truth, we ARE full of good ideas and initiatives, and I have not even mentioned advent calendars or movie releases. But please, don’t discount toys in November. If anything, it brings sales forward a little and empties stores for the next two weeks. There has got to be another way.

I’m sure many of you have felt this same feeling as I have… I might look older on the outside, but I feel like I’m still 25 on the inside. I’m a grown woman with teenagers, but sometimes I want to act more like them than the Baby Boomer I am!

And, I think many Baby Boomers like me feel the same way.

Baby Boomers (born between 1946-1964) represent 74 million or 23 percent of the U.S. population today. When the last of us reaches retirement in 2029, let’s call it age 65, there will be 21.6 million more Americans who are 65+years old than there are today. That’s growth of 42 percent for the population of ages 65+ from 2017 to 2029. That’s a heck of a lot more people needing products and services suitable for a senior citizen’s lifestyle.

What does this have to do with KGOY or AGYO? Kids Getting Older Younger (KGOY) has been a topic in the toy industry for at least a decade. The idea is that kids are aging out of toys at younger and younger ages—that’s a topic I could debate, but we’ll save that for a later time.

AGYO is my made-up acronym for a new revolution—Adults Getting Younger Older. I think there are many of us who are going to do whatever we have to in order to delay getting old. We’re taking better care of ourselves and want to continue being active, enjoy life and, more importantly, have lots of fun in retirement.

I think the opportunity is tremendous for many industries to start thinking about products specifically for the aging Boomer population. Not only will this amazing group of people have a lot of time on their hands, but they will want to have fun, keep their brains active, and they have money to spend. What better way to spend your time as you get older than with play. Play doesn’t have to be for the young; let’s get people thinking about play for everyone, including seniors.

Here’s my call-out to the toy manufacturing community: can you start thinking about the future now? Can you think about how to better serve the Boomers with toys and games just for us? We are going to want you to think about us when you design new products, and we will want to feel special. We will not want the same toys and games that you make for an eight-year old. I’m hoping that by the time I retire, there will be a whole bunch of new toys, games, and puzzles that will interest me and my 74 million “young at heart” friends that allow us to have the fun we deserve. Who knows, you might just be able to carve a new niche for yourself. Better get crackin’.

It’s hard to think about the topic of back-to-school when my kids just wrapped up school only two weeks ago here in New York. But, alas, we at NPD have already started to talk about it as retailers are preparing for the next big shopping season for many industries, from apparel to school supplies.

But, what about toys?

For the toy industry, August in particular is a bit of drag. Though this is a period when many new toys are being introduced to the market, sales reach a low point. In terms of absolute dollar sales for the toy industry, August tends to be among the bottom two or three performing months of the year, right there with January. While the product changeover on store shelves may factor into this, I think the primary reason is quite obvious: back-to-school expenses. For many families, back-to-school can suck up every ounce of a family’s disposable income, and then some. For that moment in time, a pair of shoes, a new outfit, and school supplies become the more important decisions.

Does this mean the toy industry should walk away? Absolutely not. There is a place for the toy industry during this period, and it can support the back-to-school initiative.

Educational toys—particularly flashcards—sell more than usual during the back-to-school season. Digging a little deeper, these educational toys are slightly overdeveloped for preschool children and lower income households (<$50K/year) on a bi-annualized basis. My theory is that lower income families of preschoolers are looking for ways to educate their children through inexpensive toys, perhaps because their communities don’t offer free preschool as an option.

Can the toy industry do more, particularly during back-to-school, by creating more fun and educational preschool toys? Can retailers, particularly those in lower income neighborhoods, carry more inexpensive, high quality preschool education toys? There are back-to-school related opportunities for the toy industry that just might benefit everyone.