Baker’s Dozen + 1: Stephen Baker’s Top Holiday 2015 Expectations

NPD Highlights: Consumer Tech for the Holidays

  • 1. Thanksgiving week sales will exceed last year’s results
  • 2. Brick & mortar retailers will lead the market in Thanksgiving week promotions
  • 3. Promotional frenzy will focus on TVs as consumers lose interest in other big-ticket categories
  • 4. Audio, 4k TVs, and digital fitness bands will be the hot products this holiday season
  • 5. Big screen TVs will dominate holiday sales and promotions like never before
  • 6. TV sales will be the best in years, with mid-single-digit revenue increases
  • 7. Peak fitness - awareness, interest, competition, and availability will make digital fitness the hottest category
  • 8. Home automation will disappoint as consumers still struggle with the value proposition
  • 9. Windows notebooks will struggle to match last year’s outstanding performance
  • 10. Tablet market will remain a drag on industry performance
  • 11. Smartphone growth will slow from 2014
  • 12. Slowing smartphones means slower growth for smartphone    accessories, too
  • 13. Headphones and soundbars lead the audio market with double-digit growth
  • Baker’s Dozen Bonus - Industry holiday sales will fall short of last year’s $15.8 billion

“The consumer electronics business will see growth among some up-and-coming categories during the 2015 holiday season, but it’s going to be a challenge to drive overall industry growth,” said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis at NPD. “Market saturation and a mature install base will make it difficult to outpace last year’s holiday sales.”

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