COVID-19 Case Spikes Continue to Hinder U.S. Restaurant Recovery in Week Ending June 28

Restaurant customer transactions decelerate between 6- to 9- percentage points in hot spot states from last week

Chicago, July 6, 2020 — The recovery of U.S. restaurant customer transactions has stalled for the second week in a row as COVID-19 cases continue to increase in a number of states, reports The NPD Group. For the week ending June 28, total customer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains are down  -14% versus the same week a year ago.  Last week, week ending June 21, total transactions were down  -13% versus year ago, according to NPD’s CREST® Performance Alerts, which provides a rapid weekly view of chain-specific transactions and share trends for 72 quick service, fast casual, midscale, and casual dining chains. 

The rise in COVID-19 case counts is causing local and state authorities to delay reopening, and in some cases, reinstating on-premise restaurant dining restrictions.    In Texas, for example, restaurants may continue to offer on-premise dining, but capacity is rolled back from 75% to 50%.  California announced last week the closing of its nearly 86,000 restaurants to on-premise dining.  These policy changes hurt full service restaurants (FSRs) most.  Nationwide, FSR customer transactions for the week ending June 28 were  -25% versus the prior year, down only 1-point versus last week’s year-over-year comparison, but several states where COVID-19 is gaining saw the biggest declines in FSR transactions.  Louisiana, South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona led the FSR decline, decelerating between 6- to 9- percentage points in year-over-year comparisons from last week. Customer transactions at major quick service restaurant chains declined by  -13% compared to same week last year, down 1-point from last week’s decline. 

“It’s apparent that the road to recovery is going to be a challenging one for the U.S. restaurant industry,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Consumer demand is there as is the want for normalcy, but there is nothing normal about this situation."


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